Macro analyst Lyn Alden says that Bitcoin (BTC) could rally higher over the coming months if certain conditions are fulfilled.
Asked in a Coin Stories interview whether Bitcoin could revisit its all-time high this year, Alden says that the price of king crypto could surge if the Federal Reserve reverses its current hawkish monetary policy measures, such as raising interest rates and the unwinding of asset purchases.
“I mean if you had a total capitulation, like if you had a pivot in Fed policy and a re-liquefaction of markets, it’s a pretty high volatility asset [Bitcoin]. So you could have a pretty big swing up. You could retest some highs.”
As for how Bitcoin will likely perform in the short term, Alden says BTC could still print new lows but highlights that the top crypto asset by market cap is now trading at price levels favorable for long-term holders.
I don’t really have a high conviction if we’re going lower or not. It’s not like Bitcoin necessarily bottoms as soon as the economic indicators bottom. It’s not that correlated, right.
So it could bottom ahead of time, it could not. I think we’re already in kind of a value range. But that doesn’t mean we can’t go lower.”
Alden also notes that Bitcoin has historically proven to fare poorly when the economic environment is slowing down.
“Historically, and the sample size is not big because I’m talking about a 13-year-old asset, [Bitcoin] doesn’t do well in economic decelerating environments.
And I had questions like, ‘Okay would that pattern hold this time or because there’s higher inflation?’ It’s the first time you’ve gone through a down cycle that’s inflationary in Bitcoin’s history.
And I was like that’s a new variable so I was like you know it’s probably not going to be great for price. But we will see. And so far, it has been pretty bad for price obviously.”
Bitcoin is trading at $29,733 at time of writing.
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